Long Shots for 2008


So we made it, 2008 is 2 days old and here is my obligatory preview of the year. The year started well for me with fireworks over San Francisco which are visible from my apartment building. As you can see, the emerald tower (The Infinity – Luxury condominiums) blocked the view somewhat but we were still able to enjoy them. Now I don’t gamble much because I am spectacularly bad at it, I can’t resist that 500-1 outsider, even though I know it will never win I can’t resist that value. So in that spirit here are my long shot predictions for 2008 in no particular order:

1) Digg, StumbleUpon, Del.icio.us, reddit and all the similar services will be bought, merge or become irrelevant.

I have been playing around with them and apart from Del.icio.us don’t find them helpful at all. What I want is feeds and access to my friend’s feeds and why do I want that in multiple places? I can either use my social networking tool of choice, such as facebook to monitor what my fiends are looking at and what they like. As the rise in social networks tells us, people care about what their friends and contacts are doing, we don’t care that 600 teenage girls digg some Justin Timberlake video (unless I am a teenage girl perhaps) so put the ‘diggs’ of my friends in facebook where everything else is thanks and that drives the ad revenue to facebook.

UPDATE: del.icios.us was acquired by Yahoo in 2005, let’s see what happens with the others if they are not already acquired – sorry for the oversight.

2) Amazon will buy Salesforce.com

I know Jake is predicting Google will buy them, but what about Amazon? Amazon to consumers is an online store, but in reality they are a technology company and the moves they have made into web services may just be the start of a more aggressive push in that direction.

3) Yahoo! will remain number 1 internet destination

Google, myspace and facebook are all gaining fast, but I think they will hold on to top spot. I have always liked Yahoo! and been a long time user, they have acquired some nice real estate recently such as flickr and upcoming that they are knitting together nicely, I love the new Yahoo mail (better than gmail) and Yahoo maps always gives better routes than Google maps [UPDATE: this is my perception – not hard facts]. If they can either fix Yahoo! 360 or buy a decent social networking site they will continue to be a very compelling destination.

mac cube4) iPhones sales will beat all estimates

I got an iPhone for Christmas after my months of procrastinating my wife made the decision for me, she knew I would love it. Given am a big apple fan and I have three macs at home (including the unpopular cube) I’m not sure why I doubted that the usability and access to the real web would more than compensate for not having 3G and being with AT&T. With the 3G version rumored to be months away and all the zealots like me preaching the good news I think many people will be won over.

So that’s all for my way our predictions, I have avoided speculating on who Oracle will buy because I don’t want anybody thinking I have inside information (which I don’t), but I do wonder if Red Hat is still a possibility?

One last point on the iPhone. It took me 6 calls to AT&T to get mine activated – is this a record? How was activation for everyone else?

Author: David Haimes

I'm Senior Director in the Oracle Research and Development Organization, with close to 20 years working in various roles on the development of the Financial Management product suite.  Since the summer of 2016 my focus is exclusively on working with customers and longer-term design work, particularly around next-generation functional and technical architecture. My task is to figure out NOW what the financial management system of the next 3, 5 or more years should look like and start working toward it.  At the moment the majority of my time is spent working on Blockchain or Distributed Ledger Technologies (DLT), leading the effort for all of SaaS applications.  I'm also interested in AI, Machine Learning and new UX and interaction paradigms such as chat bots. I started out in Oracle UK and found my way out to Oracle's Redwood Shores, California HQ in May 2000.  My previous role was product owner for Fusion Accounting Hub, General Ledger, Intercompany and Legal Entity products in Oracle Fusion Financials and eBusiness Suite General Ledger. I have also worked on EMEA Globalizations, Federal and Public Sector Financials, XML Payments and a variety of projects on other products down the years.

7 thoughts on “Long Shots for 2008”

  1. Tom – this is just my impression, I didn’t intend to claim it as fact, so probably my wording in the post should change to reflect that.

    One example I did earlier today – from my iPhone I did from 94105 to San Luis Obispo and google sent me across the Bay Bridge onto the 880 and down the east side of the bay – 4 hours 23 minutes.

    Now from yahoo on my mac book it is saying straight onto the 101 3 hours 27 minutes. This is certainly a better route.

    I assume you find google directions better?


  2. Yahoo is a sleeping giant in 2.0, but they can’t seem to get a strategy in place. I like your prediction. I see them jumping past the social networking jumble into mail as the new killer social app.

    Mail + delicious bookmarks + flickr photos + IM + upcoming events = social goodness

    Mail contacts (minus spam) have a level of implicit trust, so I’m more likely to look at the links, photos and events of my contacts.

    Plus, Y!Mail has a huge user base, many of whom don’t know squat about social networks, so why not jump over that and straight into the content sharing?


Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )


Connecting to %s